Iran-Israel, now the clash turns head-on

The elimination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut by Israel is the fruit of a new type of warfare, changes the dynamics of the regional conflict that began on Oct. 7 and triggers Sunni joy in Lebanon and Syria, making us realize that the Middle East is the scene of an abrupt change destined to have unpredictable consequences.

The new type of warfare that led to the blitz against Nasrallah stems from the intelligence operation by which Israel detonated ten days ago - without formally admitting it - the beepers of some 4,000 commanders and components of the Radwan force, Hezbollah's elite units. These "beepers" for at least five months have accompanied the lives of leaders, officers and specialists of the pro-Iranian paramilitaries, accumulating an unprecedented amount of information about the Jewish state's most fearsome and fierce enemy.

After being taken by surprise on Oct. 7 by the Hamas pogrom due to a resounding intelligence failure, Israel turned the tables on the same front by exploiting a "sleeper" operation prepared by its 007s years earlier, with the construction abroad of a pager factory that became a supplier to Hezbollah.

Hence it is precisely this treasure trove of information that has enabled the Idf, over the past 29 days, to conduct a multi-pronged blitz in the name of surprises: on July 31 the elimination within hours of the Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut and the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniye in Tehran; on Sept. 8 the raid with commandos inside the underground base in Maysaf, Syria on the border with Lebanon, where Hezbollah and the Iranians were working on building precision missiles, which was completely destroyed; in the last week the destruction of a multitude of ramps, rockets and missiles hidden in the homes of villages in South Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley; the elimination of Nasrallah as he met with his surviving commanders from the very "beeper" attack.

This does not mean that Hezbollah is defeated, but it highlights how the amount of detailed information gathered through the "beepers" allowed the Idf to seize such and so many results in a very tight time frame. For the simple reason that the "beepers" have turned what used to be Hezbollah's greatest strength into weakness: absolute secrecy about the identity of the components and the belief that they are impervious to infiltration. Confirming that old Middle Eastern adage that "those who look strong are not always strong and those who look weak are not always weak".

It is precisely Hezbollah's vulnerability that is the tactical game-changer in the conflict that began on October 7 in the Middle East with the Hamas attack. Until now Israel was besieged militarily on multiple fronts by terrorist organizations - Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank, Houthi in Yemen, Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq - allied with and supported by Tehran, but allowing Iran to keep itself unexposed. And it is a siege that has given Tehran the belief that it can move closer to the strategic goal of Israel's destruction because Hamas's war in Gaza has increased the Jewish state's international isolation, keeping it in hostage-holding check as Hezbollah targeted it from the north with thousands of rockets forcing nearly 70,000 civilians from their homes. If Tehran this summer said that "the situation is turning for the worst for the Zionist Entity," it is because Israel appeared increasingly unable to defend itself against the jihadist siege, isolated from its U.S. and EU partners, and torn internally over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Now Nasrallah's elimination instead highlights Hezbollah's weakness while in Gaza Hamas's military structure is pulverized with its leader, Yahia Sinwar, forced to live in tunnels. That is, Israel has broken the siege with which Iran was strangling it. That is why Tehran is announcing the enlistment of fighters, saying it is ready to send them to Lebanon and Syria to fight Israel, showing a willingness to wage a ground war that comes on top of the direct airstrike launched on the night of April 13 with a barrage of more than 300 drones and missiles. No longer able to rely on Hamas and with Hezbollah staggering, Tehran is forced to expose itself directly in the conflict against Israel to defend its ambition for regional leadership, built on the goal of wiping the Jewish state off the map.

This is the scenario that unfolds: after the proxy war, Tehran exposes itself in the head-on conflict against Israel. It will be the coming weeks that will tell us what this will lead to: whether to an open confrontation or to a different balance of power between sworn enemies. There can be no doubt, however, that the dynamic of the Iran-Israel duel has changed.

Hence the significance of the Arab-Sunni crowds celebrating, in multiple locations in Syria and Lebanon, for the elimination of Nasrallah. Cedar flags flown in Tripoli and Free Syria flags in Idlib suggest that Sunni communities victimized in recent years by Hezbollah's violence consider Nasrallah's death a kind of liberation day. It was Hezbollah that allowed Syrian dictator Bashar Assad to crush the Syrian uprising in blood just as it is Hezbollah that has taken over the Lebanese state from within, identifying Sunnis as its adversaries. That is why the Sunnis' street parties remind us that the Arab states fear Tehran's Shiite ayatollahs more than they oppose Israel. That's why the signatories to the peace accords-Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates-were careful not to denounce them after Oct. 7, while condemning in the harshest terms the IDF killings of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The Arab-Israelis, who are overwhelmingly Sunni, have also had a similar attitude: with their hearts they support Gaza but between Israel and Iran they have no doubt which side they are on.

In short, Nasrallah's death opens the scenario to a direct confrontation between the Shiite theocracy in Tehran and Israel that has the Middle East order at stake, and Sunnis are not rooting for the descendants of the Ali schism that divided Islam.